5 January 2010
The dust – and the snow –settles after Copenhagen
Perhaps fittingly, given the freezing conditions sweeping into Europe from the Arctic, any momentum towards achieving a strong and fair agreement on tackling climate change seems to be on ice for the moment, despite the flurry of activity the world saw in December.
Now is a time when Governments, as well as organisations like Friends of the Earth, are reflecting on the outcome of the talks in Copenhagen, and where the world goes next.
What is clear is that Copenhagen hasn’t delivered what millions of people around the world were hoping for. After intense negotiations on the final day of the conference, and out of sight of the world’s media, activists and even most negotiators, the ‘Copenhagen Accord’ was thrashed out.
Unfortunately, the Accord is almost as far from the action we need to take to tackle climate change as you can get.
In essence, it is a voluntary agreement – so even those countries which have signed up aren’t under any legal obligation to deliver what they’ve promised. In fact, there aren’t even any concrete emissions cuts included in the text – pledges are expected over the next month, though it is almost certain they will fall far short of what is required.
Even worse, although the Accord reiterates – yet again – that countries across the world agree action must be taken to limit an increase in global temperatures to 2 degrees C, a leaked UN analysis has shown that even assuming rich countries cut their emissions at the top of the range they’ve offered, global temperatures would rise by at least 3 degrees.
All of which means bad news for those most vulnerable to the worsening impacts of climate change – communities in Africa and Asia who’ve done least to cause the problem in the first place.
And whilst the Copenhagen Accord includes a promise of US$10 billion a year over three years for developing countries for them to tackle climate change, most of this will be diverted from existing aid budgets – meaning, in effect, there isn’t any extra money at all.
Similarly, a long-term funding package endorsed by the countries which put the Accord together looks impressive – with promises of US$100 billion a year by 2020 for developing countries – but most of this is envisaged to come from a global carbon market.
Yet trading in carbon has already become extremely complex, with bankers and investors packaging up permits and selling them on, creating the very real risk of a speculative commodity bubble and another ‘sub-prime mortgage’ style financial crisis – a double whammy of financial and environmental disaster.
It’s ironic that an Accord hammered out during the coldest winter in years puts us so far from taking the action we urgently need to stop dangerous global warming. If 2009 was the year world leaders agreed to act, 2010 needs to be the year they actually do it.
Henry Rummins
Henry Rummins travelled to Copenhagen as part of Friends of the Earth’s delegation, and reported for Geographical on the UN climate talks that took place in the city from 7-18 December. He is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society.
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