Dr Iain Stewart
What’s the new series about?
In a nutshell, it’s about how the planet works. Over four programmes, we look at four fundamental forces that have shaped the planet through time: volcanoes, the atmosphere, the oceans and ice. We bring it all together in the last programme, where we look at the idea that these forces work in a really complex and sensitive way. What we find
is that the Earth is a really amazing machine, with these fundamental processes that are being altered by humans. We talk about saving planet Earth, but actually, the story we reveal is that it’s an incredibly robust survivor. But there’s a difference between the survivability of the planet and the survivability of the human species. The planet isn’t likely
to be affected by anything that we do now because it has millions of years to adjust and adapt – as it has done in the past. There have been periods in the past where 95 per cent of life was wiped out in a geological blink of an eye.
So the prognosis for the planet is quite good, just not for humans
Who knows – the jury’s out on that because [our survival]
is very dependant on how we, as a society, deal with the threats that face us. What we can say is the planet has all
of these coping mechanisms that served it well in the past. Geology gives us a long-term perspective that forces you not to react to every slight concern that gets raised about the planet, because you’re dealing with something that has 4.5 billion years of history – it has been through a lot.
What are your main research interests?
I teach geology – hazards, plate tectonics and so forth. However, my research focuses on earthquake geology and archaeology – something called archaeo-seismology – with a particular focus on the Mediterranean. Essentially, I try
to find traces of past earthquakes, either in the rocks or in ruins, to try to extend our earthquake record beyond what we have from instrumental seismographs, which goes back about a century. I do this by using historical documents, as well as by examining the record held within these sites.
How do you retrieve the records held at these sites?
Sometimes it involves cutting trenches across earthquake faults, sometimes we look at coastlines, where the shores have been uplifted or dropped down by earthquakes, and other times it involves working alongside archaeologists researching [community] abandonment. What’s great about this area [of research] is that I’m having to deal with
a lot of human stories – how geology affects people.
How does geology help us to understand the world?
With the advent of climate change, people are getting drawn into this fascination with the bigger picture, and geology provides a long-term perspective on the past. Even during the past 10,000 years, we now know that there were periods of really dramatic geological change that happened over a period of years – decades – that fundamentally changed the path of human history. Without that perspective, we wouldn’t be able to understand geological hazards and how they affect contemporary society. The past century, for example, experienced few mega events – big earthquakes or volcanic eruptions – but as you delve into the history and archaeology, you discover evidence of many more mega events, which doesn’t bode well for the future.
When do you think we’ll experience another mega event?
Actually, it’s horrifyingly obvious [that the next big disaster] isn’t going to be the result of a mega event, but rather the demographics of the human population. By 2010, there’s going to be something like 27 mega cities, many of which lie on earthquake fault lines, tsunami coasts and volcano hotspots. So as long as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions continue occurring at the same rate, some scary statistics predict that a death toll of between one and three million is easily possible in the next few years. Tokyo, where most of our global financial markets are invested, has a population of 27 million and is overdue a repeat of the 1923 [Great Kanto] earthquake, which devastated it. A bit closer to home, I think I’ll see Istanbul destroyed in my lifetime, which is scary, but it’s inevitable. We’ve watched earthquakes
get closer and closer to Istanbul and, in 1999, [the Izmit earthquake] arrived on its doorstep. There’s only one significant section along the northern Anatolian fault line waiting to go and it’s right next door to Istanbul.
How can we protect ourselves from natural hazards?
We need to look at the way things have been in the past. Earthquakes and volcanoes will continue to pop off, and
we shouldn’t be worrying about the next ‘super’ volcano eruption – it’s much more humdrum than that – it’s about planning, development, political change and accepting
that these things are real. If you build well, that will certainly help, but it’s also about building community infrastructure, so that communities have better resilience and are better able to absorb the effects. You don’t need a multi-million-pound hazard warning system, what you need to get is much more of a cooperative agreement and not lumber these countries with enormous debts.
December 2007
In a nutshell, it’s about how the planet works. Over four programmes, we look at four fundamental forces that have shaped the planet through time: volcanoes, the atmosphere, the oceans and ice. We bring it all together in the last programme, where we look at the idea that these forces work in a really complex and sensitive way. What we find
is that the Earth is a really amazing machine, with these fundamental processes that are being altered by humans. We talk about saving planet Earth, but actually, the story we reveal is that it’s an incredibly robust survivor. But there’s a difference between the survivability of the planet and the survivability of the human species. The planet isn’t likely
to be affected by anything that we do now because it has millions of years to adjust and adapt – as it has done in the past. There have been periods in the past where 95 per cent of life was wiped out in a geological blink of an eye.
So the prognosis for the planet is quite good, just not for humans
Who knows – the jury’s out on that because [our survival]
is very dependant on how we, as a society, deal with the threats that face us. What we can say is the planet has all
of these coping mechanisms that served it well in the past. Geology gives us a long-term perspective that forces you not to react to every slight concern that gets raised about the planet, because you’re dealing with something that has 4.5 billion years of history – it has been through a lot.
What are your main research interests?
I teach geology – hazards, plate tectonics and so forth. However, my research focuses on earthquake geology and archaeology – something called archaeo-seismology – with a particular focus on the Mediterranean. Essentially, I try
to find traces of past earthquakes, either in the rocks or in ruins, to try to extend our earthquake record beyond what we have from instrumental seismographs, which goes back about a century. I do this by using historical documents, as well as by examining the record held within these sites.
How do you retrieve the records held at these sites?
Sometimes it involves cutting trenches across earthquake faults, sometimes we look at coastlines, where the shores have been uplifted or dropped down by earthquakes, and other times it involves working alongside archaeologists researching [community] abandonment. What’s great about this area [of research] is that I’m having to deal with
a lot of human stories – how geology affects people.
How does geology help us to understand the world?
With the advent of climate change, people are getting drawn into this fascination with the bigger picture, and geology provides a long-term perspective on the past. Even during the past 10,000 years, we now know that there were periods of really dramatic geological change that happened over a period of years – decades – that fundamentally changed the path of human history. Without that perspective, we wouldn’t be able to understand geological hazards and how they affect contemporary society. The past century, for example, experienced few mega events – big earthquakes or volcanic eruptions – but as you delve into the history and archaeology, you discover evidence of many more mega events, which doesn’t bode well for the future.
When do you think we’ll experience another mega event?
Actually, it’s horrifyingly obvious [that the next big disaster] isn’t going to be the result of a mega event, but rather the demographics of the human population. By 2010, there’s going to be something like 27 mega cities, many of which lie on earthquake fault lines, tsunami coasts and volcano hotspots. So as long as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions continue occurring at the same rate, some scary statistics predict that a death toll of between one and three million is easily possible in the next few years. Tokyo, where most of our global financial markets are invested, has a population of 27 million and is overdue a repeat of the 1923 [Great Kanto] earthquake, which devastated it. A bit closer to home, I think I’ll see Istanbul destroyed in my lifetime, which is scary, but it’s inevitable. We’ve watched earthquakes
get closer and closer to Istanbul and, in 1999, [the Izmit earthquake] arrived on its doorstep. There’s only one significant section along the northern Anatolian fault line waiting to go and it’s right next door to Istanbul.
How can we protect ourselves from natural hazards?
We need to look at the way things have been in the past. Earthquakes and volcanoes will continue to pop off, and
we shouldn’t be worrying about the next ‘super’ volcano eruption – it’s much more humdrum than that – it’s about planning, development, political change and accepting
that these things are real. If you build well, that will certainly help, but it’s also about building community infrastructure, so that communities have better resilience and are better able to absorb the effects. You don’t need a multi-million-pound hazard warning system, what you need to get is much more of a cooperative agreement and not lumber these countries with enormous debts.
December 2007
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