Greenland approaches tipping point
The Greenland icecap will melt during the next three centuries, flooding coastal regions, if one of eight crucial tipping points, identified by a group of scientists, is passed.
Speaking at a British Antarctic Survey meeting, Dr Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia said that current predictions outlined in a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) grossly overestimate the endurance of the Greenland ice sheet. The IPCC report said that it will last for 1,000 years, but Lenton and his colleagues believe a 1°C rise in temperature could trigger it to melt away over the next 300 years, causing sea levels to rise by seven metres.
‘We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet,’ said Lenton. ‘But we don’t think we’ve passed a tipping point yet.’
Lenton and his colleagues identified seven other tipping points that could be reached this century, including the collapse of the global system of ocean currents – which could halt the Gulf Stream, bringing an end to monsoons in Asia and causing the Southern Ocean to warm, with dire consequences for Antarctica. The El Niño weather pattern could also become a semi-permanent fixture in the Pacific.
October 2007
Speaking at a British Antarctic Survey meeting, Dr Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia said that current predictions outlined in a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) grossly overestimate the endurance of the Greenland ice sheet. The IPCC report said that it will last for 1,000 years, but Lenton and his colleagues believe a 1°C rise in temperature could trigger it to melt away over the next 300 years, causing sea levels to rise by seven metres.
‘We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet,’ said Lenton. ‘But we don’t think we’ve passed a tipping point yet.’
Lenton and his colleagues identified seven other tipping points that could be reached this century, including the collapse of the global system of ocean currents – which could halt the Gulf Stream, bringing an end to monsoons in Asia and causing the Southern Ocean to warm, with dire consequences for Antarctica. The El Niño weather pattern could also become a semi-permanent fixture in the Pacific.
October 2007
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