Computers predict more extremes
Global
warming will bring an increase in frequency of extreme weather events
such as droughts, heavy rain and heat waves, according to a new
analysis of some of the world’s most sophisticated climate models.
Scientists at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Texas Tech University and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre ran simulations on supercomputers at research centres in France, Japan, Russia and the USA. Nine different climate models were run for the periods 1980–1999 and 2080–2099. The latter period was simulated three times, with each simulation varying the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
All three scenarios returned predictions of an increase in heavy precipitation in areas above 40 degrees north – parts of northern USA, Canada and most of Europe – as well as longer dry spells across the western USA, southern Europe, eastern Brazil and other areas. However, the average growing season across North America and Eurasia is expected to lengthen, which could be interpreted as good news for farmers.
January 2007
Scientists at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Texas Tech University and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre ran simulations on supercomputers at research centres in France, Japan, Russia and the USA. Nine different climate models were run for the periods 1980–1999 and 2080–2099. The latter period was simulated three times, with each simulation varying the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
All three scenarios returned predictions of an increase in heavy precipitation in areas above 40 degrees north – parts of northern USA, Canada and most of Europe – as well as longer dry spells across the western USA, southern Europe, eastern Brazil and other areas. However, the average growing season across North America and Eurasia is expected to lengthen, which could be interpreted as good news for farmers.
January 2007
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