Many of the world’s poorest regions could face severe crop losses in the next two decades unless steps are taken to adapt agriculture to a changing climate, according to new research published in the journal Science.

Focusing on 12 of the world’s poorest regions, as identified by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the study found that production of staple crops such as maize, rice and millet in southern Asia could fall by ten per cent by 2030, while maize production in southern Africa is expected to decline by as much as 30 per cent.

After analysing 20 different climate-change models, the authors, from Stanford University’s Program on Food Security and the Environment, California, USA, determined that by 2030, the average temperature in most of these areas is likely to have risen by 1°C and precipitation in some places – including South Asia, South Africa, Central America and Brazil – is likely to have decreased.

‘To identify which crops in which regions are most under threat by 2030, we combined projections of climate change with data on what poor people eat, as well as past relationships between crop harvests and climate variability,’ said environmental scientist David Lobell, lead author of the study.

The authors call for the urgent implementation of agricultural adaptations, such as altering planting seasons, introducing new crop varieties and expanding irrigation, in order to mitigate the effects that they have identified.