The extreme floods that struck England last July weren’t a result of global warming, but a remarkable demonstration of the unpredictability of the nation’s weather, according to a report produced by a group of scientists from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology at Wallingford, Oxfordshire.

Following extensive analysis of both hydrological and meteorological data before and during the floods, combined with historical flood records for the past 40 years, the scientists concluded that the floods last summer were an exceptional event. The average rainfall for England and Wales between May and June last year was 415 millimetres – easily the highest for that period since records began in 1766.

‘Due to the inherent variability of the UK climate, any extreme hydrological event can’t readily be linked directly to climate change,’ said Dr Terry Marsh, co-author of the report. ‘The river floods of summer 2007 were a very singular episode that doesn’t form part of any clear historical trend or show consistency with currently favoured climate change scenarios.’

Hazel Cottrell

May 2008