Climate change may lead to mass Mexican migration
Around the world, falling agricultural productivity due to climate
change is expected to result in large-scale human migration. A warmer
climate may result in reduced crop yields through floods, droughts and stronger storms, forcing farmers to
relocate.
The present study, which was led by scientists at Princeton University, used past agricultural production, climate and census data to create a model to project how crop yields and migration may be affected by future climate change. The results suggested that for every ten per cent drop in crop yields, two per cent of Mexicans will migrate. Under current predictions for the range of climatic variations, this could mean between 1.4 million and 6.7 million Mexicans – up to ten per cent of the current adult population – migrating as a result of climate change in the next 70 years. Most of these migrants are expected to move to the USA.
The researchers used Mexico as a case study, but say that their findings are ‘significant from a global perspective, given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming’.
‘Given the size of the numbers [of migrants] we inferred, we hope to underscore the seriousness of the climate problem to policymakers in the context of reducing greenhouse gas emissions,’ said co-author Michael Oppenheimer.
KARA MOSES
October 2010
The present study, which was led by scientists at Princeton University, used past agricultural production, climate and census data to create a model to project how crop yields and migration may be affected by future climate change. The results suggested that for every ten per cent drop in crop yields, two per cent of Mexicans will migrate. Under current predictions for the range of climatic variations, this could mean between 1.4 million and 6.7 million Mexicans – up to ten per cent of the current adult population – migrating as a result of climate change in the next 70 years. Most of these migrants are expected to move to the USA.
The researchers used Mexico as a case study, but say that their findings are ‘significant from a global perspective, given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming’.
‘Given the size of the numbers [of migrants] we inferred, we hope to underscore the seriousness of the climate problem to policymakers in the context of reducing greenhouse gas emissions,’ said co-author Michael Oppenheimer.
KARA MOSES
October 2010
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