Climate change moving too fast for some
Researchers from several institutions, including the California Academy
of Sciences and the Carnegie Institution for Science, combined data on
current global temperatures with climate projections for
the next 100 years in order to calculate the velocity of climate change in several different habitats and found that, on average, ecosystems will have to shift towards the poles by about 0.42 kilometres a year as temperatures change.
They found that the slowest-moving ecosystems would be tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 kilometres per year). Montane habitats will also be able to move slowly because a small change in elevation can result in a large change in temperature. So montane grasslands and shrublands will only have to move at around 0.11 kilometres per year. Ecosystems in flatter regions, such as flooded grasslands and savannas, will need to move more rapidly (1.26 kilometres per year) as they will have to shift further to remain in a suitable climate.
While the researchers point out that many plants and animals will be able to adapt to changing climates, those species that can tolerate only a narrow range of temperatures will need to migrate at speeds similar to the velocity estimates in order to survive. Many plants won’t be able to keep up with the shifting climate, as almost a third of the habitats in the study will move at speeds higher than even the most optimistic plant-migration estimates. In addition, because human development has fragmented many natural habitats, many species could be left with nowhere to go, regardless of their migration rates.
March 2010
the next 100 years in order to calculate the velocity of climate change in several different habitats and found that, on average, ecosystems will have to shift towards the poles by about 0.42 kilometres a year as temperatures change.
They found that the slowest-moving ecosystems would be tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 kilometres per year). Montane habitats will also be able to move slowly because a small change in elevation can result in a large change in temperature. So montane grasslands and shrublands will only have to move at around 0.11 kilometres per year. Ecosystems in flatter regions, such as flooded grasslands and savannas, will need to move more rapidly (1.26 kilometres per year) as they will have to shift further to remain in a suitable climate.
While the researchers point out that many plants and animals will be able to adapt to changing climates, those species that can tolerate only a narrow range of temperatures will need to migrate at speeds similar to the velocity estimates in order to survive. Many plants won’t be able to keep up with the shifting climate, as almost a third of the habitats in the study will move at speeds higher than even the most optimistic plant-migration estimates. In addition, because human development has fragmented many natural habitats, many species could be left with nowhere to go, regardless of their migration rates.
March 2010
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