Decimated by the slave trade and colonisation, the region’s population remained fairly static for several centuries prior to 1900, when it stood at just 100 million. During the next century, it increased seven-fold, reaching 770 million by 2005, but now, the latest UN projections predict that the population could reach two billion by 2050.

The new study, coordinated by the Centre Français sur la Population et Development, looked at population trends and development in sub-Saharan Africa. It found that the region is currently more densely populated than Latin America, with 32 inhabitants per square kilometre (compared with 28 per square kilometre), and two thirds of the population currently living in rural areas. But as rural to urban migration increases, the proportion is expected to drop to a half by 2030, exerting increasing pressure on urban infrastructure. In 1960, Johannesburg was the only African city with more than one million inhabitants, today there are more than 40.

The scenario envisaged by these projections could severely hinder the region’s ability to develop economically and socially and relieve extreme poverty, with only six nations achieving economic growth above the seven per cent margin needed to sustain population growth of this magnitude.


March 2008