Tsunami: 'Worst yet to come'
The Asian tsunami of 2004 wasn’t the worst possible, and warning systems in the area are still insufficient, warns a new report.
Scientists at the Tsunami Research Center (TRC) at the University of Southern California looked at all of the known sources of Indian Ocean tsunamis caused by tectonic plate movements and worked out what would happen if they triggered a tsunami.
Professor Costas Synolakis, TRC director and co-author of the report published in the Geophysical Journal International, said: ‘We don’t know when, but for many locales in the Indian Ocean, the worst is yet to come.’
Places likely to be hit harder by future tsunamis include Madagascar, Singapore, Somalia and Western Australia. ‘Clearly, at large distances from the source – where the earthquake shaking can’t be felt – a tsunami early warning system is needed,’ Synolakis said.
The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System has been operating in the area since 2006. However, according to Dr Jane Cunneen, spokesperson for UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, ‘We still have more work to do. The more instruments we have to detect tsunamis, the more reliable our predictions will be.’ She added that other challenges include finding a way to warn people who are at risk in coastal areas and coordinating regional governments.
The 2004 Asian tsunami killed more than 200,000 people, largely in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It was generated by an underwater earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia.
Scientists at the Tsunami Research Center (TRC) at the University of Southern California looked at all of the known sources of Indian Ocean tsunamis caused by tectonic plate movements and worked out what would happen if they triggered a tsunami.
Professor Costas Synolakis, TRC director and co-author of the report published in the Geophysical Journal International, said: ‘We don’t know when, but for many locales in the Indian Ocean, the worst is yet to come.’
Places likely to be hit harder by future tsunamis include Madagascar, Singapore, Somalia and Western Australia. ‘Clearly, at large distances from the source – where the earthquake shaking can’t be felt – a tsunami early warning system is needed,’ Synolakis said.
The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System has been operating in the area since 2006. However, according to Dr Jane Cunneen, spokesperson for UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, ‘We still have more work to do. The more instruments we have to detect tsunamis, the more reliable our predictions will be.’ She added that other challenges include finding a way to warn people who are at risk in coastal areas and coordinating regional governments.
The 2004 Asian tsunami killed more than 200,000 people, largely in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It was generated by an underwater earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia.
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